Plus ça change

, a leopard can't change its spots, a lipstick on a pig is still a pig and it's hard to teach an old dog new tricks. I am referring to this. Seasoned Zimbabwe watchers greeted news of the agreement cautiously and with good reason because it appears that Mugabe is going back on his pledge to make it work. His lack of enthusiasm for the deal was evidenced by him swanning off to New York for the better part of 2 weeks with several key issues outstanding. Contrast Mugabe's stance with that of Tsvangirai and it's patently obvious who has the welfare of the Zimbabwean people at heart.

There's a lot to be said for Mbeki's so called "quiet diplomacy" when it came to Zimbabwe, but at least Mbeki plays by the rules and by tendering his resignation at the behest of his party he exhibited statesmanship. Mugabe was reputed to have been furious at Mbeki's ouster especially since Mbeki's softly, softly approach did not go down well with other members in the South African government. Indeed, a further delay in getting the current impasse resolved may hinge on whether Mbeki will continue in his role as mediator. Mugabe will want to maintain the status quo because a new negotiator may not be as accommodating

Deal or No Deal

So Mbeki has managed to cajole Mugabe, Mutambara and Tsvangirai to sign a power sharing agreement. Should this be a cause for celebration for the long suffering Zimbabwean people? Judging by Mugabe's comments at the signing ceremony, I think it's a case of let's wait and see - he could not resist yet another swipe at the usual suspects. Although Zanu-PF's George Charamba was quick to point out that Zimbabwe was not Kenya, during a press conference at the AU summit in Sharm-el Sheikh, the power sharing agreement signed by Zanu-PF, MDC-T and MDC-M is modelled along similar lines to the one Kenya's Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga signed earlier this year. It would now appear that the African election model is vote, dispute the result then sign a power sharing agreement, eventually. Zimbabwe's cabinet is set to have 31 ministers, Kenya has 42. Mugabe will retain control of the JOC, but the reality seems to be the other way round. Tsvangirai wants to control the police and is set to control the finance ministry because the international community won't give Zimbabwe the aid the country desperately needs otherwise.

However, Zimbabweans will recall what happened when Joshua Nkomo's ZAPU was subsumed by Mugabe's Zanu after an earlier power sharing agreement and the subsequent atrocities that were committed in Matabeleland. So it remains to be seen how committed Mugabe is to making this latest agreement work.

Incapacitated

Incase you are wondering why the talks between Zanu-PF, the MDC faction led by Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara are so protracted, here's the reason. Robert Gabriel Mugabe is beholden to the JOC (veterans of Zimbabwe's war of independence and now heads of Zimbabwe's army, airforce and intelligence services) and they have instructed him not to concede executive power to Tsvangirai, despite the latter winning the majority of parliamentary seats in the March elections. In other words, the talks are Mugabe's way of stalling for time while he and the JOC devise a way for Mugabe to continue his misrule of Zimbabwe.

Mugabe has previous here because he held talks with Joshua Nkomo's ZAPU which was subsumed into Zanu-PF and then he deployed Perence Shiri (current head of the Zimbabwean airforce and JOC member) to Matabeleland where the North Korean trained 5th brigade proceeded to ethnically cleanse the Ndebele fron Matabeleland.

Volte-face

Did you hear about Dubya's volte-face on talking to Iran without preconditions, something BO had proposed a few months back and which Dubya had derided and likened to Neville Chamberlain's appeasement in 1939? In fact, Dubya's administration is soon to establish diplomatic relations with Iran after a 30 year break.

Somebody else on the volte-face bandwagon is none other than Robert Gabriel Mugabe. The Zimbabwean Central Bank can no longer print money as they've run out of the requisite paper and the German company that supplies the paper won't be replenishing stock anytime soon because of pressure from the German government. If Mugabe can't pay the military and the police to continue the violence and intimidation of the MDC and its supporters, he will be in a very precarious position. So he decided to talk to Morgan Tsvangirai. However the talks are now deadlocked because Mugabe still thinks he's Top Dog and wants the winner of the March 29 elections to accept the position of THIRD vice-president. It's apparent that Mugabe shows no signs of emerging from his parallel universe anytime soon or are these the kicks of a dying horse?